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Covid-19 in the United Kingdom

Nassim Taleb is fond of one pagers these days, but he’s also into the precautionary principle, fat tails and “black swans”. Based on those principles he has argued for action on “climate change”:

We have only one planet. This fact radically constrains the kinds of risks that are appropriate to take at a large scale. Even a risk with a very low probability becomes unacceptable when it affects all of us – there is no reversing mistakes of that magnitude.

By way of a change, here’s an extract from a recent COVID-19 “note” of his:

The general (non-naive) precautionary principle delineates conditions where actions must be taken to reduce risk of ruin, and traditional cost-benefit analyses must not be used. These are ruin problems where, over time, exposure to tail events leads to a certain eventual extinction. While there is a very high probability for humanity surviving a single such event, over time, there is eventually zero probability of surviving repeated exposures to such events. While repeated risks can be taken by individuals with a limited life expectancy, ruin exposures must never be taken at the systemic and collective level. In technical terms, the precautionary principle applies when traditional statistical averages are invalid because risks are not ergodic.

Cartoon by John Farmer

I’m more used to posting the the University of Washington’s Polar Science Center’s modelled Arctic sea ice volume graphics, but here’s the UoW’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation‘s UK COVID-19 death projections for a change:

Here in the once Great Britain we won’t have to wait a few decades to get a feel for how good Chris Murray’s coronavirus model is:

Here are the current official statistics from the United Kingdom’s Department of Health and Social Care:

As of 9am on 7 April, 266,694 tests have concluded across the UK, with 14,006 tests carried out on 6 April. Some individuals are tested more than once for clinical reasons.

213,181 people have been tested, of whom 55,242 tested positive. Today’s figure for people tested does not include Manchester and Leeds due to a data processing delay. The tests concluded figure excludes data from Northern Ireland.

As of 5pm on 6 April, of those hospitalised in the UK who tested positive for coronavirus, 6,159 have died.

and Office for National Statistics:

The provisional number of deaths registered in England and Wales in the week ending 27 March 2020 (Week 13) was 11,141; this represents an increase of 496 deaths registered compared with the previous week (Week 12) and 1,011 more than the five-year average.

A total of 150,047 deaths were registered in England and Wales between 28 December 2019 and 27 March 2020 (year to date), and of these, 647 involved the coronavirus (COVID-19) (0.4%); including deaths that occurred up to 27 March but were registered up to 1 April, the number involving COVID-19 was 1,639.

For deaths that occurred up to 27 March, there were 1,568 deaths in England registered by 1 April involving COVID-19 compared with 1,649 deaths reported by NHS England for the same period in a newly published dataset.

Of the deaths registered in Week 13, 539 mentioned “novel coronavirus (COVID-19)”, which is 4.8% of all deaths; this compared with 103 (1.0% of all deaths) in Week 12.

This is slightly lower than the figures reported by the Department of Health and Social Care (DHSC) for Week 13 (739) as it takes time for deaths to be reported and included in Office for National Statistics (ONS) figures.

Of deaths involving COVID-19 in Week 13, 92.9% (501 deaths) occurred in hospital with the remainder occurring in hospices, care homes and private homes.

Please note, where Easter falls in previous years will have an impact on the five-year average used for comparison.

[Edit – April 8th PM]

Here’s the current Kings College COVID Symptom Tracker map for South West England, dated April 1st:

For some strange reason North Devon is even more of a hot spot than Cornwall. Second home owning surfers down from London for the weekend?

Here’s the symptom tracker explanatory webinar:

Meanwhile, and only marginally off topic, whilst Donald Trump berates the World Health Organization for being too China-centric:

the IHME projects peak COVID daily deaths in the once United States will occur in a mere 4 days time:

P.S. James Annan, a “climate modeller though probably doing more epidemiology in the last couple of weeks”, has published a pertinent article on his blog entitled “Dumb and dumber“:

All these people exhorting amateurs to “stay in their lane” and not muddy the waters by providing analyses and articles about the COVID-19 pandemic would have an easier job of it if it wasn’t for the supposed experts churning out dross on an industrial scale.

The article describing [the IHME] method is here, it’s some sort of fancy curve fitting that doesn’t seem to make much use of what is known about disease dynamics. I may be misrepresenting them somewhat but we’ll see below what a simple disease model predicts.

James goes on to present the outputs of his “simple disease model” for the UK:

My model predicts a total of 8k deaths next week, with a 5-95% range of 4-19k. Yes it’s a wide uncertainty range, I think my prior on Rt is probably still too broad as I don’t really expect to see a value lower than 0.5 or higher than 1.5 (and these are just the 1sd spread limits in the above). But I am very optimistic that the median estimate generated by this method is better than the experts have provided, and they don’t seem to believe that anything in the lower half of my range is possible at all.

It will be exceedingly interesting to discover how all the numbers look on or about April 16th!

[Edit – April 9th]

Today let’s take a look at the “official” UK novel coronavirus death forecasts from Neil Ferguson’s team at Imperial College, with the help of James Annan’s latest article. He covers a variety of countries, but sticking with the United Kingdom for the moment:

Here is the current UK forecast…before today’s figure comes out.

This is the IC forecast for the UK for this week again (pink plume again, below). The data were already outside their range by yesterday. What on earth were they thinking?

What indeed! The Imperial College model seems to habitually “over forecast” the number of deaths due to COVID-19 here in the UK. Of course time will tell how much “under reporting” there has been during the pandemic.

[Edit – April 12th]

James Annan has produced an animation showing how his model evolves over time as more data becomes available:

His current forecast looks like this:

[Edit – April 14th]

Another week’s worth of COVID-19 mortality data has been released by the ONS. Included in the news release is this graph:

As suspected:

Nick Stripe, head of health analysis and life events at the ONS said:

“The latest comparable data for deaths involving COVID-19 with a date of death up to 3 April, show there were 6,235 deaths in England and Wales. When looking at data for England, this is 15% higher than the NHS numbers as they include all mentions of COVID-19 on the death certificate, including suspected COVID-19, as well as deaths in the community.

“The 16,387 deaths that were registered in England and Wales during the week ending 3 April is the highest weekly total since we started compiling weekly deaths data in 2005.”

[Edit – April 15th]

James Annan has submitted a paper about his Covid-19 epidemic model to medRxiv:

What’s more the R Markdown source code is available via GitHub!

https://github.com/jdannan/COVID-19-operational-forecast

[Edit – April 18th]

I discovered something deeply disturbing today. Whilst I happily admit to being an old sceptic, I generally subscribe to the “cock up” theory of history.

However today I noticed that my surfing tweet in the comments below, and retweeted at the time by Andrew “Cotty” Cotton, looked rather strange. I clicked through the link to Twitter, only to discover this:

Now I didn’t delete that Tweet, and Cotty wouldn’t have been able to do that even if he wanted to. Which does rather beg a question or two:

Who did delete my (subversive?) surfing images? And what are they so concerned about?

[Edit – April 21st]

The latest batch of weekly death certificate data has been released by the ONS. Would you like to play “spot the difference”?

  • The provisional number of deaths registered in England and Wales in the week ending 10 April 2020 (Week 15) was 18,516; this represents an increase of 2,129 deaths registered compared with the previous week (Week 14), is 7,996 deaths more than the five-year average and is the highest weekly total since Week 1 in 2000.
  • Of the deaths registered in Week 15, 6,213 mentioned “novel coronavirus (COVID-19)”, which is 33.6% of all deaths; this compares with 3,475 (21.2% of all deaths) in Week 14.
  • In London, over half (53.2%) of deaths registered in Week 15 involved COVID-19; the West Midlands also had a high proportion of COVID-19 deaths, accounting for 37.0% of deaths registered in this region.
  • Total deaths registered by place of occurrence between Week 11 (when first COVID-19 deaths were registered) and Week 15, the number of deaths in care homes has doubled by 2,456 deaths (99.4% increase); whilst we have seen a 72.4% increase (3,603 deaths) in hospitals, and 51.1% increase in private homes (1,392 deaths).
  • Of deaths involving COVID-19 registered up to Week 15, 83.9% (8,673 deaths) occurred in hospital with the remainder occurring in care homes, private homes and hospices.
  • Week 15 included the Good Friday bank holiday; the five-year average does show a decrease in registrations over the Easter holiday; however, the Coronavirus Act 2020 allowed registry offices to remain open over Easter, which may have reduced any drop in registrations for Week 15 2020.

[Edit – April 28th]

The ONS have released their latest weekly “death certificate” data:

  • The provisional number of deaths registered in England and Wales in the week ending 17 April 2020 (Week 16) was 22,351; this represents an increase of 3,835 deaths registered compared with the previous week (Week 15) and 11,854 more than the five-year average; this is the highest weekly total recorded since comparable figures begin in 1993.
  • Of the deaths registered in Week 16, 8,758 mentioned “novel coronavirus (COVID-19)”, which is 39.2% of all deaths; this compares with 6,213 (33.6% of all deaths) in Week 15.
  • In London, over half (55.5%) of deaths registered in Week 16 involved COVID-19; the North West and North East also had a high proportion of COVID-19 deaths, accounting for 42.3% and 41.1% respectively of deaths registered in these regions.
  • Of deaths involving COVID-19 registered up to Week 16, 77.4% (14,796 deaths) occurred in hospital with the remainder occurring in care homes, private homes and hospices.
  • The number of overall deaths in care homes for Week 16 was 7,316; this is 2,389 higher than Week 15, almost double the number in Week 14 and almost triple the number in Week 13.
  • Week 16 included the Easter Monday bank holiday, and the five-year average shows a decrease in registrations over the Easter holiday; however, the Coronavirus Act 2020 allowed registry offices to remain open over Easter, which may have reduced any drop in registrations for Week 16 2020.

Here’s the cumulative totals graph

Continued over here:

Covid-19 in the UK in May 2020

38 replies on “Covid-19 in the United Kingdom”

Please note that according to The Guardian:

The newly released data is disputed by scientists whose modelling of the likely shape of the UK epidemic is relied on by the government. Prof Neil Ferguson, of Imperial College London, said the IHME figures on “healthcare demand” – including hospital bed use and deaths – were twice as high as they should be.

According to my hasty calculations that makes >12k Intensive Care Unit beds needed, with <1k available, on the peak date. Hopefully Boris Johnson will have vacated his long before then.

According to The Daily Telegraph:

London Mayor Sadiq Khan said the city, which is a hotspot for coronavirus in the UK, has “got the capacity now to deal with our needs” in terms of critical care beds.

Speaking to BBC Breakfast from his home, Mr Khan said: “A few weeks ago we started planning for the worst, which is a peak where we would need in London around 8,000 intensive care unit beds.

“To give you a scale of the challenge, we normally have across the whole of London about 800 intensive care unit beds with ventilators, oxygen and those sort of things. Because of the brilliance of the NHS, Army planners, and many others we’ve opened the Nightingale Hospital.

“We’ve got the capacity now to deal with our needs. At the moment, thankfully, we’re nowhere near reaching 8,000.

“At the moment we’ve still got 25%, about there, capacity within the NHS (in London) before we even go to Nightingale, so it demonstrates the can-do attitude of not just Londoners but those around the country who have helped us get ready for the peak of this virus.”

Here’s today’s forecast from James Annan:

Today’s update from the UK Department of Health and Social Care reads as follows:

As of 9am on 8 April, 282,074 tests have concluded across the UK, with 14,682 tests carried out on 7 April. Some individuals are tested more than once for clinical reasons.

232,708 people have been tested, of whom 60,773 tested positive. Today’s figure for test data does not include Charing Cross and Southampton due to a data processing delay. The tests concluded figure excludes data from Northern Ireland.

As of 5pm on 7 April, of those hospitalised in the UK who tested positive for coronavirus, 7,097 have died.

That works out to 938 daily deaths “of those hospitalised”. We’ll have to wait quite a while for the equivalent ONS count of weekly death certificates that mention COVID-19.

I’ve discovered that my letter from Boris Johnson and the accompanying leaflet finally arrived in my post box today, at no little expense to the Great British taxpayer no doubt! It tells me:

If too many people become seriously unwell at one time, the NHS will be unable to cope. This will cost lives. We must slow the spread of the disease, and reduce the number of people needing hospital treatment in order to save as many lives as possible.

That is why we are giving one simple instruction – you must stay at home.

Absolutely nuts isn’t it! Here in Nova Scotia with a population of approx. one million we have the following from the government site:

As of today, April 8, Nova Scotia has 342 confirmed cases of COVID-19. Thirty-two new cases were identified Tuesday, April 7. https://novascotia.ca/coronavirus/

Have you noticed the CO2 numbers lately? With the industrial slow down globally I would have thought a slight levelling of the ppm’s year over year. Doesn’t seem to be however. I know the daily numbers are no trend, just the same if the increases were mainly human influenced you’d think the rise would be a lot less. 1 Year Change 3.46 ppm (0.84%) April 7th. Me thinks something wicked this way comes! Interesting times for sure! Stay safe Jim and all. Now back to my greenhouse for some self isolation.

Some not very surprising news from Ofcom, in the age of “truth decay”:

https://www.ofcom.org.uk/about-ofcom/latest/media/media-releases/2020/half-of-uk-adults-exposed-to-false-claims-about-coronavirus

Ofcom is conducting weekly research to help understand how people are receiving and acting on information during the current pandemic.

Our first results from week one of the ‘lockdown’ show that the most common piece of false information around coronavirus is the claim that drinking more water can flush out the infection (seen by 35% of online adults). That is followed by claims that it can be alleviated by gargling with saltwater, or avoiding cold food and drink – both pieces of misinformation seen by nearly a quarter (24%) of online adults.

However Ofcom also assert that:

Almost all online adults (99%) are getting news and information about coronavirus at least once a day, while one in four (24%) are doing so 20 or more times each day. But conversely, more than one in five (22%) said they are trying to avoid news about the pandemic.

People are most likely to turn to the BBC’s TV, radio and online services for the latest news on the pandemic (82%), followed by other broadcasters (56%); official sources such as the World Health Organisation (WHO), NHS and the Government (52%); social media (49%); newspapers (43%); and family and friends (42%). Only 15% used closed messaging groups to get information, such as WhatsApp and Facebook Messenger.

That being the case, where do you suppose all those “false claims” are emanating from?

I live in “the middle of nowhere” on the edge of Bodmin Moor in North Cornwall. Here’s what my bike ride yesterday evening looked like:

However what about the majority of people who need to take their permitted daily exercise in a locked down urban environment? Here’s a new “white paper” that addresses that question:

http://www.urbanphysics.net/Social%20Distancing%20v20_White_Paper.pdf

The 1.5 meter distance rule announced by several governments is “very effective” for people who stand still indoors or outdoors in calm weather. But those who go walking, running or cycling should be a bit more careful. “If someone exhales, coughs or sneezes while walking, running or cycling, most of the microdroplets are entrained in the wake or slipstream behind the runner or cyclist. The other person who runs or cycles just behind this leading person in the slipstream then moves through that cloud of droplets, ”says Bert Blocken, professor of civil engineering at Eindhoven University of Technology and KU Leuven.

Here’s an associated video:

The latest official UK COVID-19 daily statistics have been published at long last:

As of 9am on 9 April, 298,169 tests have concluded across the UK, with 16,095 tests carried out on 8 April. Some individuals are tested more than once for clinical reasons.

243,421 people have been tested, of whom 65,077 tested positive. The tests concluded figure excludes data from Northern Ireland.

As of 5pm on 8 April, of those hospitalised in the UK who tested positive for coronavirus, 7,978 have died.

That works out at 881 deaths in the last 24 hours, a modest reduction from yesterday. James Annan’s forecast for tomorrow is 910:

Here’s what my most recent permitted coronavirus lockdown exercise looked like:

Perhaps the next such update will come from the North Coast instead of inland?

The “official” UK coronavirus daily death numbers have been updated:

As of 9am on 10 April, 316,836 tests have concluded across the UK, with 19,116 tests carried out on 9 April. Some individuals are tested more than once for clinical reasons.

256,605 people have been tested, of whom 73,758 tested positive.

As of 5pm on 9 April, of those hospitalised in the UK who tested positive for coronavirus, 8,958 have died.

According to the Guardian:

The UK’s daily death toll reached a new record of 980 – exceeding that of Italy at its peak on 27 March.

The public has been told that we remain “in a dangerous phase” of the outbreak and have not yet reached the peak – so physical distancing this Easter bank holiday weekend remains absolutely crucial and people must stay at home.

I have certainly been keeping up the physical distancing, except when it comes to the other member of my household. However I have to admit that we haven’t exactly “stayed at home” all day:

The University of Washington’s IHME has released a new version of their UK daily deaths projection:

3 days ago their best estimate for the peak was 2,932 per day on April 17th.

Today their best estimate is 1,674 per day on the same date. What do you suppose is the reason for that significant reduction?

Meanwhile James Annan managed to slightly “under forecast” today’s 980 number yesterday:

Here’s his forecast for tomorrow too:

The “official” UK coronavirus daily death numbers have been updated once again:

As of 9am on 11 April, 334,974 tests have concluded, with 18,091 tests carried out on 10 April.

269,598 people have been tested, of whom 78,991 tested positive.

As of 5pm on 10 April, of those hospitalised in the UK who tested positive for coronavirus, 9,875 have died.

Tests People tested Positive Deaths
Daily 18,091 12,993 5,234 917
Total 334,974 269,598 78,991 9,875

Some individuals are tested more than once for clinical reasons. The figure for the number of tests excludes data from Northern Ireland. Testing data reflects the latest reported data although the timing of reporting cycles differs between labs.

The #FailOnSunday is back on top form this Easter Sunday. Apart from the batty bunkum I mentioned last night the online version of today’s front page bears the byline of one Harry Cole. Allegedly:

Boris Johnson came close to death as he desperately fought coronavirus in an intensive care unit, his friends revealed last night.

After rallying, the Prime Minister told them that he owed his life to the doctors and nurses at St Thomas’ Hospital in London, adding: ‘I can’t thank them enough.’

The Mail on Sunday today reveals the extraordinary battle to save the stricken PM by medics who had been expecting him in hospital three days before he was finally admitted last Sunday.

At one point, Mr Johnson’s plight was so grave that Cabinet Ministers and aides prayed for him. While in hospital, Mr Johnson has been boosted by a love letter from his fiancee, Carrie Symonds, which included a scan of their unborn child.

The Prime Minister plans to recuperate at Chequers after his release from hospital but, with a further 979 coronavirus deaths announced yesterday, bringing the total in the UK to 9,937, his allies insist he will control the vital process of when – and how – Britain emerges from the lockdown.

You may well not be a regular reader of BoJo’s Twitter feed, but here’s how it looks this fine Easter morning:

Hence this uncharacteristic outburst on my part:

Who can say how many of what type of almost life forms Boris might currently be conveying from the Covid-19 Westminster hot spot out into the Great British countryside?

Mathematician John Horton Conway “has sadly left” us:

Has James Annan’s model’s “prediction” of the peak UK daily death come true? Here are the latest editions of both “fact” and “theory”:

As of 9am on 12 April, 350,575 tests have concluded, with 18,000 tests carried out on 11 April.

282,374 people have been tested, of whom 84,279 tested positive.

As of 5pm on 11 April, of those hospitalised in the UK who tested positive for coronavirus, 10,621 have died.

Tests People tested Positive Deaths
Daily 18,000 12,776 5,288 737
Total 350,575 282,374 84,279 10,612

Some individuals are tested more than once for clinical reasons. The figure for the number of tests excludes data from Northern Ireland. Testing data reflects the latest reported data although the timing of reporting cycles differs between labs.

Hope things go well for you and your family and friends in the UK: I believe the normal flu kills about 300k-600k(globally) every year so the numbers on this new virus already are staggering considering the effort put in to self isolate everyone/(lots-of-people) from the workplace.

I’m just in little old Perth, Western Australia and we feel basically oppressed by the endless instructions about not being able to do something else everyday but for you in the UK this is fair dinkum serious.

I’m glad you still feel free enough to get out of the house a bit though- because cabin fever sucks ****!

“Stiff upper lip, buddy: ‘oi oi oi!!!!'”

Thanks for your good wishes SML,

The latest updates on “getting out of the house” under lockdown over here:

I trust you are able to get plenty of fresh air down under at the moment?

Today’s “official” death data update:

As of 9am on 13 April, 367,667 tests have concluded, with 14,506 tests carried out on 12 April.

290,720 people have been tested, of whom 88,621 tested positive.

As of 5pm on 12 April, of those hospitalised in the UK who tested positive for coronavirus, 11,329 have died.

Tests People tested Positive Deaths
Daily 14,506 10,745 4,342 717
Total 367,667 290,720 88,621 11,329
Some individuals are tested more than once for clinical reasons. The figure for the number of tests excludes data from Northern Ireland. Daily totals reflect actual figures reported today.

Serology results for samples tested on 12 April will not be authorised until 14 April due to the Bank Holiday. Combined activity figures for 12 and 13 April will be reported on 14 April. For serology testing, some protocols allow for samples to be tested repeatedly. Samples are anonymised prior to sending to the lab for testing, therefore the identification of individuals tested is not possible in the current reporting process.

James Annan’s COVID-19 model has convinced him that the UK is now past peak daily deaths, which is comfort of a sort I suppose if that’s how things ultimately pan out:

Following today’s grim statistics from the Department of Health Boris Johnson seems sadly unable to take his own advice:

Today’s news from our glorious Government’s web site:

Cumulative: 302,599 people tested 93,873 positive 12,107 deaths in hospital

Daily: 11,879 tested 5,252 positive 778 deaths

Some rare “good news” from the official statistics:

Cumulative: 313,769 people tested 98,476 positive 12,868 hospital deaths

Daily: 11,170 tested 4,605 positive 761 deaths

Slightly fewer hospital deaths reported over the last 24 hours than the previous day. Has “the curve” flattened yet, do you suppose?

I learned today via Richard Betts on Twitter that Sir John Houghton, founder of the Met Office’s Hadley Centre, has succumbed to Covid-19:

Today’s gov.uk totals:

Cumulative: 327,608 people tested 103,093 positive 13,729 hospital deaths

Daily: 13,839 tests 4,618 positives 861 deaths

Personally I no longer suppose that the curve has flattened.

I was born in Yorkshire. My Grandad survived being gassed in WW1 and became a great Leeds United supporter:

Norman “Bites yer legs” Hunter has succumbed to COVID-19

RIP Norman

Today’s other death details:

Cumulative: 341,551 people tested 108,692 positive cases 14,576 deaths in hospital

Daily: 13,943 tests 5,599 positive 847 deaths

The number of Covid-19 cases and deaths from Her Majesty’s Government:

As of 9am 18 April, 460,437 tests have concluded, with 21,389 tests on 17 April.

357,023 people have been tested of which 114,217 tested positive.

As of 5pm on 17 April, of those hospitalised in the UK who tested positive for coronavirus, 15,464 have sadly died.

To summarise:

Cumulative: 357,023 people tested 114,217 positive cases 15,464 deaths in hospital

Daily: 21,389 tests 5,526 positive 888 deaths

James Annan reports via Twitter that his new paper has been accepted by medRxiv:

Today’s official announcement:

As of 9am 19 April, 482,063 tests have concluded, with 21,626 tests on 18 April.

372,967 people have been tested of which 120,067 tested positive.

As of 5pm on 18 April, of those hospitalised in the UK who tested positive for coronavirus, 16,060 have sadly died.

To summarise:

Cumulative: 372,967 people tested 120,067 positive cases 16,060 deaths in hospital

Daily: 21,626 tests 5,850 positive 596 deaths

Significantly fewer hospital deaths reported, perhaps due to the apparently recurring “weekend reporting” effect?

Today’s report from the Department of Health reveals another decline in deaths:

As of 9am 20 April, 501,379 tests have concluded, with 19,316 tests carried out on 19 April.

386,044 people have been tested, of whom 124,743 have tested positive.

As of 5pm on 19 April, of those hospitalised in the UK who tested positive for coronavirus, 16,509 have died.

To summarise:

Cumulative: 386,044 people tested, 124,743 positive cases, 16,509 deaths in hospital

Daily: 14,106 tests, 4,676 positive, 449 deaths

Let’s await tomorrow numbers with bated breath, as the “weekend effect” wears off.

P.S. Here’s James Annan’s latest projection:

The “weekend effect” has well and truly evaporated:

As of 9am 21 April, 535,342 tests have concluded, with 18,206 tests carried out on 20 April.

397,670 people have been tested, of whom 129,044 have tested positive.

As of 5pm on 20 April, of those hospitalised in the UK who tested positive for coronavirus, 17,337 have died.

To summarise once again:

Cumulative: 397,670 people tested, 129,044 positive cases, 17,337 deaths in hospital

Daily: 11,626 people tested, 4,301 positive, 823 deaths

James Annan’s projection is still on track, even after the sudden jump:

Heading back towards James Annan’s projected midline today:

As of 9am 22 April, 559,935 tests have concluded, with 22,814 tests carried out on 21 April.

411,192 people have been tested, of whom 133,495 have tested positive.

As of 5pm on 21 April, of those hospitalised in the UK who tested positive for coronavirus, 18,100 have died.

Summarising again:

Cumulative: 411,192 people tested, 133,495 positive cases, 18,100 deaths in hospital

Daily: 13,522 people tested, 4,451 positive, 759 deaths

Another modest reduction in daily reported hospital deaths:

As of 9am on 23 April, 583,496 tests have concluded, with 23,560 tests carried out on 22 April.

425,821 people have been tested, of whom 138,078 have tested positive.

As of 5pm on 22 April, of those hospitalised in the UK who tested positive for coronavirus, 18,738 have died.

In summary:

Cumulative: 425,821 people tested, 138,078 positive cases, 18,738 deaths in hospital

Daily: 14,629 people tested, 4,583 positive, 616 deaths

The projection:

We’re trying an alternative format for the official daily deceased report today:

Daily deaths = 684, plus Dr. Annan’s extrapolation:

According to the BBC:

Labour’s shadow health secretary Jon Ashworth says “questions will need answering” about the issues with the UK government’s new coronavirus testing website.

The website for key workers to book tests has temporarily closed – hours after it launched on Friday.

“The fact the website crashed in minutes reveals the extent of the demand that ministers should have prepared for,” Ashworth said.
“Questions will need answering as to why this happened, what mechanisms are in place to ensure everyone who needs a test gets one quickly and whether a workable tracing strategy is being prepared.”

A government spokesman said 5,000 home testing kits were ordered in the first two minutes of the website going live.

It will be back up and running when the next batch of slots becomes available, the spokesman added.

James Annan succinctly sums up today’s official numbers:

The “weekend effect” seems to repeating itself once again:

The latest daily deceased numbers have been published, in all probability still suffering from the “weekend effect”:

During the past 24 hours there have been 329 coronavirus deaths recorded in England, with people aged between 29 and 100 losing their lives.

Of those 22, including the youngest, had no underlying health conditions.

London had the most deaths (87), followed by the Midlands (55), the North East and Yorkshire (55), the North West (41), the South East (38), the East of England (34) and the South West (19).

The traditional increase in daily hospital deaths after the weekend is upon us:

When you view the latest Dept. of Health daily numbers of deceased due to Covid-19 please bear in mind that they now include deaths “across all settings”, not just “in hospitals:

James Annan’s current comment on the new numbers reads as follows:

P.S. Here’s his updated projection, based on the “tested positive” numbers:

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